Tracking the Trade - Weekly Newsletter for July 21, 2025

Week in Review & Preview

The markets channeled their inner Taylor Swift this week, shaking off inflation concerns like they just don’t care. June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) spiked to 2.7%—spicier than your morning latte—but traders treated it like background karaoke noise. Instead, all eyes were on corporate earnings and the never-ending saga of tariffs: less economic policy, more courtroom reality show. In this bull vs. bear dance-off, the Nasdaq stole the spotlight with its fifth straight record high, while the Dow hit the snooze button. Next week’s lineup? A full-blown tech-and-central-bank festival—busier than a Starbucks during finals week.

Daily Market Performance & Weekly Summary

• S&P 500: Opened Monday at 6,268.56, closed Friday at 6,296.79 (+0.45%). Posted its 9th record close on Thursday—basically printing its own fan club merch.

• Dow Jones: Started at 44,459.65, ended at 44,342.19 (-0.26%). Tried to party Thursday (+229 points), but Friday pulled the rug out (-142).

• Nasdaq: Rose from 20,640.33 to 20,895.66 (+1.24%). Landed its 10th record close—call it the Beyoncé index.

• 10‑Year Treasury: Ended Friday at 4.42%, reminding everyone—and Jerome Powell—that rate cuts aren’t coming any time soon.

• Bitcoin: Surfed past $123K early in the week, then chilled around $118K—crypto hit $4T market cap, proving it’s still bigger than some countries.

Weekly MVP & Faceplant

🏆 MVP: Nvidia Corporation – AI chip legend surged 4% after CEO Jensen Huang announced renewed China sales—thanks, U.S. export greenlight. Market cap now a staggering $4.2 trillion, with a comfy $400 billion cushion over Microsoft.

🥴 Faceplant: Healthcare Sector – Slumped 1.3% on regulatory hangovers and lackluster clinical trials. Drug pricing policies are the wet blanket on this once-cozy sector.

Top 10 Major News Headlines and Market-Moving Events

Trump’s Tariff Theater (July 14–18):

President Trump announced a 30% tax on goods coming from the European Union and Mexico, starting August 1. That means anything from wine to car parts could get more expensive for U.S. buyers. He also dangled a 50% tariff threat on copper, which sent shivers through the metals market. Wall Street initially panicked, but then shrugged it off as another round in Trump’s “Art of the Deal” playbook. Bottom line: more uncertainty for global trade, but investors have seen this show before.

Inflation Heats Up (July 15):

Prices for everyday stuff went up faster than expected in June. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) hit 2.7%, and the “core” inflation number (which strips out food and gas) hit 2.9%. It was the biggest monthly jump in five months, which means everything from groceries to rent probably felt a little pricier. This complicates the Federal Reserve’s plan to cut interest rates—because they’re trying to cool things down, not fuel a spending bonfire. Translation: higher prices = less chance your mortgage rate goes down soon.

Bank Earnings Beat (July 15–16):

Big banks like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup reported better-than-expected profits. That’s thanks to higher interest rates fattening their margins and fewer people defaulting on loans than feared. Some worry about commercial real estate debt (think office buildings that are half-empty), but for now, the banks are holding steady. It’s a reassuring sign that the financial system isn’t wobbling like it did in 2008. Investors gave a nod of approval—but kept one eyebrow raised.

Nvidia’s China Pivot (July 17):

Nvidia got the green light to resume some chip sales to China, and the tech world rejoiced. These high-powered chips are crucial for AI development, gaming, and even data centers. Since China is a huge customer, this news sent Nvidia stock flying and lifted the entire semiconductor sector with it. It also signals that the U.S. government might be easing up on some export restrictions—at least for now. Investors read this as, “Game on.”

Bitcoin Surge (July 14–18):

Bitcoin hovered near $119,446 this week, riding a wave of demand from big institutions and people looking for a “safe haven” amid the tariff chaos. With a 77% gain so far this year, it’s outpacing pretty much every other asset class. People are treating Bitcoin like digital gold—only with more memes and less shine. It also helps that uncertainty in traditional markets makes crypto look like the cool, rebellious cousin again.

Housing Market Strength (July 16):

Despite mortgage rates hovering around 6.8% (which should scare off buyers), people keep applying for loans. In fact, purchase applications have risen for 22 weeks straight. That’s either a sign of stubborn optimism—or pure madness. Inventory is rising and prices are still going up, suggesting demand isn’t cooling as fast as expected. The real estate market’s message? “Rates be damned—we’re buying anyway.”

European Central Bank Pause Talk (July 18):

Christine Lagarde, president of the European Central Bank (ECB), hinted that Europe might stop cutting interest rates for now. Their deposit rate sits at 2%, and they’re pumping the brakes due to rising defense spending and trade war fears. Markets jittered like someone just spilled espresso on the keyboard—rate cuts were the hope, but now it’s wait-and-see. Europe is clearly trying to thread the needle between inflation and recession.

Copper Price Soars (July 8–18):

Copper prices shot up 31% this year, hitting nearly $5.58 per pound—almost a record. That’s partly because of Trump’s tariff threats, which created a rush to grab supply before it gets slapped with taxes. Copper is used in everything from electronics to construction, so rising prices mean higher costs across the board. It’s basically the market’s way of saying, “Good luck building anything cheap right now.”

Gold & Hard-Assets Watch

Gold hovered at $3,365/oz—its first red week in a bit. Solid job numbers and retail sales cooled rate-cut hopes. Copper ran up to ~$5.58/lb, showing tariff talk is jacking up demand. Oil? Just playing it cool amid Russia–Ukraine tension. Q1 2025 saw central banks scoop up 244 tonnes of gold—Poland led with 67 t and China kept adding 30+ t in June. When the world goes wobbly, everyone’s grabbing shiny metal.

Real-Estate Pulse

Housing markets displayed mixed signals this week, acting like they can’t decide between buyer’s market or a Netflix drama subplot. Mortgage rates hovered near 6.8%, inventory climbed to a 4.6‑month supply—the most since sellers realized they can’t ask $800K for a 2‑bed fixer-upper.

Home prices reached a record median of $422,800 in May—23 consecutive months of gains, like Groundhog Day in plumber’s paradise. Builder confidence is lukewarm amid tariff-driven material costs, so 37% cut prices in June by an average of 5%—like Black Friday at Lowe’s, but in June.

Regionally: Texas and Florida are finally cooling down (sun isn’t enough), but the Northeast remains red-hot. Mortgage purchase applications rose for the 22nd straight week—resilient or in denial? Next week’s housing starts will answer whether construction is back…or still AWOL.

Week Ahead Preview: July 21–27, 2025

Monday, July 21: Asian Central Banks + Earnings Kickoff

• PBOC Rate Decision: Expect no fireworks; rates likely stay at 3.0% (1‑yr) and 3.5% (5‑yr).

• Earnings: Verizon (est. $1.18/share), Roper Technologies ($4.82), Domino’s Pizza ($3.93)—pizza and telecom predicted vibes incoming.

• IPOs: Savy Infra and Swastika Castal open—betting on infrastructure… and pronunciation challenges.

Tuesday, July 22: Fed Conference + RBA Minutes

• Fed Conference on Large Bank Capital Requirements: Basel III regs under deep dive. Aka “Regulatory Boogaloo.”

• RBA July Minutes: Likely reaffirming their 3.85% hold—Australia repeating itself like a well-rehearsed jig.

Wednesday, July 23: Quiet Mid‑Week

• No macro fireworks—just calm before the storm. Also, FOMC blackout kicks in: no Powell posts, just guesswork and anxiety.

Thursday, July 24: The Main Event

• ECB Decision & Lagarde Press Conf.: Deposit rate announcement at 12:45 UTC, press room tension at 13:30. Markets expect a 25 bp cut—will they? Cue drama.

• Flash PMIs: Germany (7:30 UTC), Eurozone (8:00), UK (8:30), US (13:45). Global snapshot: is the macro world still making things?

• Tokyo CPI: Japan’s headline at 3.3% for June—nearly two years above the BoJ’s 2% target. Inflation is overstaying its welcome.

Friday, July 25: Positioning Prep

• End-of-week position resets ahead of Fed’s July 29–30 FOMC. Expect charts, trackers, coffee-fueled pacing, and maybe mild panic.

Critical Context for the Week Ahead

Fed Blackout Period: Powell and co. are in hiding until July 30. Markets will rely on vibe-checks, leaked memos, and Wall Street horse-race commentary.

Geopolitical Tensions: Trade policy plot twists continue. Any surprise tariff tweets? Expect major market flinches.

Earnings Season Surge: 86% of S&P 500 firms have beaten expectations so far. Corporate America looks strong—just don’t ask your grocery bill.

Social Media Sentiment and Market Psychology

Twitter/X is acting like a fantasy football season—predictive and dramatic. Hashtags like #RateCut vs. #InflationConcerns are duking it out. Reddit is deep in tariff conspiracies; StockTwits is all semis, semis, semis. Retail sentiment is swinging faster than your last relationship.

Wine & Dine

Pair this week’s markets with a bold Napa cabernet: rich, layered with tech optimism, spiced by tariff angst, and finishes with a hint of inflation-induced heartburn. Sip, swirl, and spit—just like reading Bitcoin charts after midnight.

Wrapping Up

Another chaotic—but ultimately bullish—week is in the books. Despite a flurry of headlines, from sizzling inflation to surprise tariff salvos, markets stayed on track and even notched fresh highs. That’s a solid show of resilience—but next week will put that strength to the test.

With the Fed in its pre-meeting blackout, investors are left reading tea leaves and parsing data like amateur detectives. Meanwhile, earnings season continues to roll out, with major tech and banking names stepping up to the mic. These reports will help answer a critical question: is this rally built on solid fundamentals or just riding a wave of AI hype and wishful thinking?

Some fund managers are already waving a yellow flag—Bank of America reports cash levels at record lows, a pattern that’s historically been a setup for short-term pullbacks. Still, market history favors those who don’t flinch. The data is clear: time in the market beats timing the market more often than not. Stocks fall, sure—but they also bounce back, often when the headlines look ugliest.

So as you prep for another high-stakes week, remember to keep your watchlist close, your portfolio balanced, and your sense of humor sharp. Because in this market? Calm, clarity, and the occasional smirk might be your best edge.

⚠️ Disclaimer⚠️

Our newsletter includes more forecasts than an early-warning radar—but we promise clarity over cryptic vibes. Investing carries risks; past returns don’t guarantee future results—especially if a Fed chair sneezes mid-speech. Consult a pro before chasing copper futures, and yes, we may hold positions mentioned here—but we’re not time travelers.

Tracking the Trade is published weekly by Claude and Team —your caffeinated, sarcasm-powered market sherpa. Got tips, sassy feedback, or next-gen meme stock? Slide into our inbox.