Tracking the Trade: Week of July 14–18, 2025

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Week in Review & Preview

Markets tiptoed through a minefield of tariff headlines last week, ultimately ending almost flat as investors weighed fresh 35% levies on Canadian imports and a looming 50% tariff on Brazilian copper against a still-resilient U.S. economy. The S&P 500 slipped 0.3%, the Dow shed 0.6%, and the Nasdaq eased 0.2%. Traders shrugged off the saber-rattling, treating it like background noise in a Marvel movie montage, and instead positioned for this Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index and the big-bank earnings parade kicking off mid-week. With Nvidia’s valuation briefly soaring past $4 trillion and Bitcoin printing fresh highs above $118,000, the coming week could deliver more plot twists than a Netflix finale.

Weekly Market Scorecard

Sector Heat Map

Weekly MVP & Faceplant

• MVP: Amazon (AMZN) – Shares climbed after the e-commerce titan unveiled a $20 billion plan for two AI-focused data-center campuses in Pennsylvania—the largest corporate investment in state history.

• Faceplant: Centene (CNC) – The managed-care provider plunged 37.9% as profit-margin pressure and regulatory uncertainties spooked investors.

Top News Headlines & Market Impacts

1. Tariff Clock Ticks Again (July 11) – President Trump confirmed a 35% tariff on Canadian imports effective August 1 and floated blanket 15–20% duties on “most partners,” rattling cyclicals but sparking safe-haven bids in Treasurys and gold.

2. Nvidia Hits $4 Trillion Club (July 10) – AI champion Nvidia briefly became the first company to top a $4 trillion valuation, underscoring relentless demand for its data-center GPUs.

3. Dow Chemical Shutters European Assets (July 7) – Dow announced closures of three high-cost plants, booking up to $790 million in charges while promising a $200 million EBITDA uplift by 2029.

4. Amazon’s $20 Billion Keystone Bet (July 9) – Amazon committed to massive Pennsylvania data centers, reinforcing AI infrastructure arms-race optimism and giving the state a tech makeover.

5. Copper Surges on 50% Tariff (July 10) – A proposed 50% U.S. duty on Brazilian copper sent futures up 13%, boosting miners but raising input-cost worries for manufacturers.

6. Bitcoin Prints Another Record (July 11) – BTC topped $118,000 before settling near $116,000 as ETF inflows and “digital gold” narratives intensified.

7. Jobless Claims Dip (July 11) – Weekly unemployment filings fell, highlighting labor-market resilience and potentially complicating Fed easing hopes.

8. Capgemini to Buy WNS for $3.3 Billion (July 9) – The deal fortifies Capgemini’s AI-enabled business-process arsenal, signaling escalating M&A in AI services.

9. IBM Launches Power11 Chip (July 8) – Big Blue’s new server processor targets AI workloads and opens cross-selling for channel partners.

10. OPEC Adds Output, Oil Holds Firm (July 11) – Extra barrels failed to sink crude as traders focused on summer-travel demand and Middle East risks.

Tariff Escalation: Trump's August 1 Deadline and the Global Trade War's New Phase

The Trump Administration's Tariff Offensive Intensifies: President Trump has transformed his trade war into a global pressure campaign, with August 1 emerging as the critical deadline for sweeping tariff increases across multiple countries and sectors. After initially pausing his "Liberation Day" tariffs in April following market volatility (and what some might call a "Dow Drop Dunk"), Trump has now sent letters—yes, actual letters—to over 20 countries announcing new tariff rates ranging from 25% to 50%. These new rates will hit unless individual trade agreements are reached faster than you can say "NAFTA 2.0."

Key Tariff Announcements and Timeline:

• Canada: 35% tariff (up from current 25%), citing fentanyl flows and trade barriers. Apparently, maple syrup diplomacy is out; tariff hockey is in.

• Brazil: 50% tariff over Bolsonaro prosecution, with Section 301 investigation initiated. From samba to sanctions in one press release.

• European Union: 30% tariff on all goods, marking failure of recent trade negotiations. It's less "EUnity" and more "EUnilateral action" now.

• Mexico: 30% tariff, though USMCA-compliant goods likely remain exempt. Nachos and tequila may survive the tariffocalypse... for now.

• Copper: 50% tariff on all copper imports regardless of origin, creating supply disruption concerns. It’s like the Copper Age, but with spreadsheets and shipping delays.

• Japan and South Korea: 25% tariffs each, affecting key Asian allies. Because what’s a little friendly fire among trade partners?

Recent Tariff Developments Recap: Trump's tariff strategy has evolved significantly since April 2025, when he first imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The current tariff landscape now resembles a Black Friday sale—except everything’s more expensive. Highlights include a 10% baseline on most imports, 30% on Chinese goods, 50% on steel and aluminum, and 25% on automobiles. However, goods compliant with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) have remained largely exempt, providing relief for approximately 40% of Canadian and Mexican imports. Think of it as a Costco membership for trade—some things get through the door unscathed.

Market Impact and Retaliation: The escalating tariff threats have prompted defensive measures from trading partners. Canada fired back with 25% retaliatory tariffs on $30 billion of U.S. goods and is sharpening its moose antlers for additional measures. The European Union is holding off until August 1, presumably to see if negotiations pull a Hail Mary. Unlike April’s “Liberation Day” market nosedive—which felt more like “Liberation from Gains Day”—markets have been oddly chill this time. Some analysts suggest that might actually encourage Trump to go full tariff-mode.

Expected Market Reactions: The August 1 deadline creates multiple pressure points for global markets. Energy sectors are biting their nails over Canadian oil and potash exemptions. Manufacturers are bracing for copper price whiplash like it's the final season of Game of Thrones—unexpected, messy, and nobody wins. The semiconductor and automotive sectors are already limping from earlier hits, and fresh tariffs could turn planning into guesswork with a side of stress ulcers. Bond markets and currency watchers are on edge, tracking every headline like it’s the next Marvel post-credit scene.

Gold & Hard-Assets Watch

Gold ticked higher to $3,322/oz last week on safe-haven flows amid tariff crossfire and a softer dollar. Silver sprinted 6% to $39/oz—its strongest level since 2011—while copper’s 13% spike underscored supply anxieties as new duties loom. With real rates still near cycle highs, precious-metal bulls are leaning on central-bank buying and geopolitical hedges rather than rate-cut fantasies.

Real-Estate Pulse

Mortgage purchase applications jumped to a two-year high as buyers rushed to lock in sub-7% rates ahead of potential CPI surprises. Home-builder sentiment remains fragile; KB Home trimmed FY 2025 revenue guidance by 9% amid sticker-shock pushback. Residential REITs eked out gains, but commercial names lagged as vacancy rates in secondary metros ticked up. Expect modest price relief if July-to-August supply boosts materialize.

Central Bank & Macro Radar (Key Events Next Week)

Earnings Watch (Key Companies Next Week)

News to Watch this Week and their Market Impacts

1. Consumer Price Index Report (Tuesday, July 15): The June Consumer Price Index will be critical in determining Federal Reserve policy direction, with markets expecting headline inflation to tick up to 2.5-2.6% year-over-year. Core inflation likely holding steady around 2.8-2.9% could influence the Fed's stance on rate cuts, potentially triggering market volatility as investors reassess expectations for monetary policy easing.

2. Federal Reserve Minutes Release (Wednesday, July 16): The FOMC meeting minutes will provide deeper insight into the central bank's thinking on inflation concerns and rate cut timing. With Fed officials divided on the path forward—some seeing cuts as early as September while others favor holding steady—these minutes could shift market expectations significantly and impact bond yields and equity valuations.

3. Oil Market Volatility from Middle East Tensions (Ongoing): Israeli-Iranian conflict escalation that began with strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June continues to create energy market uncertainty. While oil prices initially surged over 10% following the conflict outbreak, any further escalation or disruption to the Strait of Hormuz—through which 25% of global oil supply passes—could send crude prices significantly higher and pressure inflation expectations.

4. Semiconductor AI Chip Demand Developments (Throughout Week): With AI chip demand driving massive semiconductor growth, any earnings guidance or supply chain updates from major players like Synopsys (forecasting $1.75-1.78 billion Q3 revenue) could impact the broader technology sector. The semiconductor industry's 2025 sales are projected to hit $697 billion, making chip company performance a key market driver.

5. Healthcare Drug Pricing Policy Implementation (Mid-Week): Following Trump administration executive orders on Most-Favored-Nation drug pricing, pharmaceutical companies face June deadlines to commit to aligning US pricing with lowest international prices.Any major pharma company announcements on pricing commitments or resistance could significantly impact healthcare sector valuations and broader market sentiment around regulatory pressures.

6. Artificial Intelligence Regulation Updates (Tuesday-Thursday): With the Trump administration's new "global AI dominance" executive order and ongoing Congressional debates about AI oversight, any legislative developments or regulatory clarifications could impact technology stocks. The proposed 10-year moratorium on state AI laws—if it advances in the Senate—could provide significant regulatory clarity for tech companies.

7. Supply Chain Disruption Reports (Wednesday-Friday): Given 2025's focus on supply chain resilience amid tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, any major disruption announcements or trade policy updates could ripple across multiple sectors.With 63% of businesses reporting higher-than-expected supply chain losses, disruption news tends to have outsized market impacts.

8. Housing Market Data and Real Estate Investment Trust Performance (Friday): Housing starts and building permits data will provide insight into the real estate sector's health amid elevated mortgage rates and changing inventory levels. With housing inventory up 28.9% year-over-year and days on market increasing, real estate data could influence Federal Reserve policy expectations and REIT valuations significantly.

Wrapping Up

Last week’s tariff theatrics proved more bark than bite, yet they reminded us that geopolitics can still gate-crash the summer rally. With inflation data, bank earnings, and an AI feeding frenzy on deck, complacency is not a strategy. Keep stops tight, stay diversified, and remember: markets, like sitcom cliffhangers, reward those who stick around for the next episode.

Disclaimer

This newsletter is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It’s not a recommendation to buy, sell, or trade any security—our predictive accuracy competes with weather apps in a hurricane. Consult a licensed advisor before acting on anything here, and never invest cash you need for coffee, cat food, or comic-con tickets.