In partnership with

Morning Recap for Friday, October 10, 2025

TL;DR

Directional Prediction: Neutral to Slightly Bullish

Conviction Level: Medium

Rationale: The market is currently in a consolidation phase after a significant rally, with futures showing muted activity. While underlying bullish sentiment remains, supported by expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and positive market breadth, several factors warrant a neutral stance. The ongoing government shutdown is creating economic uncertainty and delaying key data releases, leaving the market susceptible to headline risk. The VIX remains at a low level, indicating a lack of immediate fear, but also potential complacency. The mixed performance of the APAC and EMEA sessions further suggests a lack of firm directional conviction in the market at this time. A slight bullish bias is maintained due to the prevailing dovish Fed stance and easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Key News Events

U.S. stock index futures are trading flat to slightly higher, indicating a pause in the recent market rally. Investors are awaiting the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey, which will be a key data point in the absence of official economic releases due to the government shutdown [1]. The shutdown continues to be a significant focus, with concerns that it could negatively impact economic growth and delay the Fed's ability to assess the economy accurately. In corporate news, Intel (INTC) is trading higher on a price target upgrade, while Levi Strauss (LEVI) is down after a disappointing profit forecast [2].

Fed Calendar Updates

The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 28-29, with the market pricing in a high probability of another 25-basis-point rate cut. The minutes from the September meeting revealed a divided Fed, with some members expressing caution about future rate cuts due to inflation concerns. However, recent commentary from Fed Governor Waller suggests a continued dovish stance, citing a weak labor market. Chair Powell is scheduled to speak on October 14, and his remarks on the economic outlook and monetary policy will be closely watched by the market [3].

Your career will thank you.

Over 4 million professionals start their day with Morning Brew—because business news doesn’t have to be boring.

Each daily email breaks down the biggest stories in business, tech, and finance with clarity, wit, and relevance—so you're not just informed, you're actually interested.

Whether you’re leading meetings or just trying to keep up, Morning Brew helps you talk the talk without digging through social media or jargon-packed articles. And odds are, it’s already sitting in your coworker’s inbox—so you’ll have plenty to chat about.

It’s 100% free and takes less than 15 seconds to sign up, so try it today and see how Morning Brew is transforming business media for the better.

Check it out

Market Indicator Metrics

APAC & EMEA Session Review

Asian markets closed mixed, with notable weakness in China (Shanghai Composite -0.94%) and Japan (Nikkei 225 -1.01%). South Korea (KOSPI +1.73%) and Taiwan (+0.88%) were the primary outperformers. European markets are also mixed, with the FTSE 100 slightly down, the DAX flat, and the CAC 40 showing modest gains. The overall sentiment from the overnight sessions is neutral, with no strong directional cues for the U.S. market open [4].

References

[1] Reuters. (2025, October 10). US stock index futures muted ahead of consumer sentiment data. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/business/us-stock-index-futures-tick-up-ahead-consumer-sentiment-data-2025-10-10/

[2] Yahoo Finance. (2025, October 10). E-Mini S&P 500 Dec 25 (ES=F) Stock Price, News, Quote & History. Retrieved from https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ES%3DF/

[3] Federal Reserve. (2025, October 10). Calendar. Retrieved from https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2025-october.htm

[4] CNBC. (2025, October 10). Global Stock Market News and World Indices Coverage. Retrieved from https://www.cnbc.com/world-markets/