Markets Get Spooked by Trade War Ghosts, Brace for Big Bank Earnings

Last Week in Review & Preview The market spent last week doing its best impression of a moody teenager: euphoric over AI one day, sulking over a trade war the next. After hitting fresh records early in the week, stocks dramatically threw a tantrum on Friday when President Trump hinted at “massive” new tariffs on China. Cue investors collectively shouting, “Wait, we’re still doing this?” It was a classic “just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in” moment that would make Michael Corleone proud.

This week, the drama shifts from geopolitics to spreadsheets as big banks kick off earnings season. Expect fewer threats and more balance sheets—a refreshing change, unless you’re allergic to financial statements.

Past Week’s Market Scorecard The week started with AI-fueled euphoria, sending indices to new heights, but by Friday, gravity (and a few tweets) kicked in. The S&P 500 dropped 2.7% after flirting with record highs, and Bitcoin—once again proving it’s not immune to mood swings—slid to around $112,878 from its weekly peak. Meanwhile, the ten-year Treasury yield dipped to 4.06%as investors made a run for the safety of bonds—because nothing says “comfort” like lending money to the government for a decade.

In short: markets once again demonstrated the attention span of a goldfish at a laser light show—mesmerized by the following shiny headline, then spooked by the next one 24 hours later.

Last Week’s News Headlines & Market Impacts

U.S.-China Trade Tensions Resurface: President Trump’s threat of "massive" new tariffs on Chinese goods sent a shockwave through the markets, causing a sharp sell-off on Friday. The threat came in response to China's restrictions on rare-earth mineral exports, a critical component in many tech products. This reignited fears of a prolonged trade war, which had been on the back burner, and dampened the market's recent AI-fueled optimism.

AMD and OpenAI Announce Major Partnership: In a move that briefly sent its stock soaring, AMD announced a multi-billion-dollar deal to supply GPUs to OpenAI. The agreement signals a significant win for AMD in the competitive AI chip market, long dominated by Nvidia. While the news initially boosted the tech sector, the gains were overshadowed by the end-of-week trade war fears.

Gold Surpasses $4,000/oz: The yellow metal continued its impressive 2025 rally, breaking the $4,000 per ounce barrier for the first time. The surge is driven by a combination of factors: a safe-haven rush amid geopolitical uncertainty, persistent inflation concerns, and a weaker U.S. dollar. Gold's performance highlights a significant undercurrent of anxiety in the market, even as equities have reached record highs.

Federal Reserve Officials Signal Caution: Minutes from the September Fed meeting and subsequent speeches from Fed governors revealed a divided committee. While another rate cut is expected, some officials are wary of persistent inflation, which could complicate future policy decisions. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's pre-recorded remarks on Thursday offered little new insight, leaving the market to read the tea leaves of individual governors' statements.

Nvidia Gets Approval for UAE Chip Exports: Nvidia received a license to export AI chips to the United Arab Emirates, a first under the Trump administration. This move opens up a new market for the chipmaker, which export restrictions to China have hampered. The news briefly pushed Nvidia's stock to a new record high before the broader market sell-off.

Qualcomm Acquires Arduino: In a bid to expand its presence in edge computing and the Internet of Things, Qualcomm announced its acquisition of Arduino. The deal gives Qualcomm access to Arduino's strong developer community and expertise in edge devices, furthering its diversification beyond the smartphone market.

Meme Stock ETF Launches: In a sign of the times, Roundhill Investments launched a new ETF under the ticker $MEME. The fund will track a basket of stocks popular on social media, offering a new way for investors to bet on the whims of the internet. The launch comes as a reminder of the speculative froth that still exists in some corners of the market.

Government Shutdown Continues: The U.S. government shutdown entered its tenth day, delaying the release of key economic data, including the September jobs report. While the market has largely shrugged off the shutdown so far, a prolonged impasse could start to weigh on investor sentiment and obscure the actual state of the economy.

Gold & Hard-Assets Watch

Gold had itself a main character moment last week, smashing through the $4,000 per ounce ceiling and strutting into the weekend at $4,015. That’s a more than 50% gain year-to-date — not too shabby for a shiny rock that doesn’t even pay dividends. Fueled by a potent cocktail of inflation fears, a flailing dollar, and the kind of geopolitical tension you could cut with a butter knife, gold is back to reminding everyone why it’s the OG “flight to safety.”

Historically, gold’s the friend you call when everything else is falling apart—and right now, it’s answering on the first ring. The ongoing sparkle in precious metals makes it clear: a lot of investors are quietly slipping on their financial seatbelts, just in case this market roller coaster takes another dip.

Real-Estate Pulse 

The U.S. housing market remains a mixed bag—kind of like a dating app where half the profiles are out of your price range and the other half are “fixer-uppers.” High mortgage rates continue to scare off buyers faster than a surprise HOA fee, keeping sales activity sluggish. The national median home price has dipped slightly to $400,000, but don’t celebrate just yet: parts of the Northeast are still flexing strong price growth, while markets in the South and West are cooling faster than your enthusiasm after seeing property tax bills and insurance quotes.

There’s a tiny glimmer of hope, though—a recent dip in mortgage rates has made homes slightly more affordable, hitting the best level since 2022. It’s not precisely a housing market miracle, but hey, at this point, we’ll take whatever wins we can get.

Key Events Next Week

Key Company Earnings This Week

Social Sentiment Snapshot Market chatter on social media was a tale of two cities this week. The early week was dominated by bullish memes about the AI boom, with AMD's partnership with OpenAI fueling the fire. By Friday, however, the mood had soured considerably, with mentions of "trade war" and "tariffs" spiking as investors braced for a rocky end to the week.

Wine & Dine This week's market action pairs well with a bold, unpredictable natural wine. You think you know what you're getting, but then it surprises you with a funky, unexpected finish—much like a market that can swing from record highs to a tariff-induced panic in the blink of an eye.

Wrapping Up

Last week was a full-blown rollercoaster — complete with whiplash, overpriced snacks, and that one guy yelling “this time it’s different!” from the back seat. Just when the AI-fueled bull market looked unstoppable, good old-fashioned geopolitics kicked down the door like an uninvited ex, reminding everyone that sentiment can flip faster than a meme stock on earnings day.

This week, the spotlight shifts from tweets to spreadsheets as the big banks roll out their earnings. Think of it as financial confession week — time to find out if the economy’s been thriving or just faking it with good lighting.

So buckle up, hydrate, and maybe keep a stress ball handy. Here’s to hoping the numbers are as strong as last week’s optimism… and that the market doesn’t ghost us by Friday.